MEKONG BASIN RESEARCH (SE-ASIA)

Socioeconomic Development

The Mekong River Basin (MRB) is the prevailing geo-hydrological structure on the Southeast Asian mainland. Consequently, the people living within this region have adapted their production techniques and their way of life to the given and seasonal varying natural condition of the Mekong and its tributaries. Moreover, they are extremely dependent on the river`s resources (e.g. fish, water, sediments) and thus highly vulnerable, if the water or flow regime is changing as a consequence of natural (e.g. floods, droughts) or human made factors (e.g. hydropower generation or population pressure) (Menniken, 2008; Nuorteva et al., 2010).
Great ethnic, religious and cultural heterogeneity characterizes the human geography of the MRB and creates a number of opportunities but also threats for the socio-economic development within this region (ADB, 2012; MRC, 2011c). Even though estimations about the range of demographic development of the Mekong region are varying, there is a consensus in the scientific discussion about a continuously growing population in the near future. These uncertain forecasts are a result of an often inconsistency in census data collection in the six different countries with their various administrative areas (Eastham et al., 2008). Accordingly, the population of the MRB is expected to grow from currently approximately 70 million people (see Menniken, 2008; MRC, 2010a; Pech and Sunada, 2008) to more than 90 to 100 million by 2025 (Eastham et al., 2008; Menniken, 2008; MRC, 2003). In this context it is also noteworthy that millions of people outside the MRB are currently dependent on products, which have their origins in the MRB. For instance, the Vietnamese Mekong Delta is also called the ‘rice bowl of Vietnam’ as it contributes about 50% to the total rice production in 2012 (43.4 MT) of which 7.7 Mt were exported in of this country.

In terms of socio-economic aspects, the riparian states of the MRB are extremely heterogeneous and differ significantly from each other in their geographical size, number of inhabitants, types of economy, level of education, standard of living, political system or in relation to their cultural traditions and social practices. However, all countries of the LMB have high average economic growth rates from 6% up to 10% per year in common (2010) (UNstats, 2013). But besides these positive economic dynamics, large portions of the basin population remain among the poorest in the world and their associated level of socio-economic development thus has to be described as rather low. In Cambodia and Lao PDR, about one third of the population lives below the poverty line (WFP, 2008; JICA, 2009) and gross national income per capita in 2011 was US$830 in Cambodia and US$1,130 in Lao PDR (ADB, 2012).
Notwithstanding, all riparian countries of the MRB put a priority on achieving economic growth in order to decrease or break the spiral of poverty and low development. Together with a considerable population growth, which correlates with the prevalent poverty in this region, this economic growth will significantly increase future demand of natural resources such as water. Therefore, an intense competition as well as an increasingly unequal distribution of natural resources is expected (Menniken, 2008). This strain on the Mekong River  and its related ecosystems could reach a point in the future when key indicators of ecological health (e.g. forest cover, biodiversity, fish stocks, soil quality etc.) are going to be reduced thus far that recovery may not be possible anymore (Kirstensen, 2004).
Resulting from the socio-economic heterogeneity of the Mekong`s riparian states, the potential and range in utilizing the water resources of the river are differing from country to country. China is primarily interested in hydropower generation, whereas Thailand and Vietnam mainly need water for irrigation (Hirsch, 2006). Cambodia heavily depends on fisheries and Laos combines all of these uses. The two latter countries can be characterized as the hydro-politically weakest riparian states, because they are the poorest and at the same time most dependent on the resources of the Mekong. However, Vietnam is in a vulnerable position, too, as it is located in the Mekong Delta region, an area highly affected both by maritime influences and all proceedings further upstream. In addition, Vietnam and Cambodia receive more than two-thirds of their required water resources from international watercourses, which are originating outside their borders, whereas Thailand imports only 40% of its water. With a hydro-electricity rate of 90%, Laos is increasingly vulnerable because the country develops its upcoming electricity supply solely on hydropower (Grumbine et al., 2012). As a consequence of these dependencies, it does not surprise that all four countries consider themselves as downstream riparian states. Resulting from their position, none of these countries is fully sovereign in hydro-politics: China as the upstream state has by its socio-economic, military and geo-physical hegemony the potential to limit the access to the Mekong water resources to an extent that it can significantly impact the future water supply, as well as the given and natural conditions of the entire Mekong region (Hirsch, 2006; Menniken, 2008; MRC, 2010a).

 

References and further reading:

Adamson, P. T., Rutherfurd, I. D., Peel, M. C. Conlan, I. A. (2009) The Hydrology of the Mekong River,The Mekong: Biophysical Environment of an International River Basin, Academic Press Elsevier, 53-76.

ADB (2011) Lower Mekong Basin Component Flood Vulnerability Indices,TA-7276-REG Supporting Investments inWater-Related Disaster Management, Draft final report Asian Development Bank, 1-59.

Beechham, R., Cross, H. (2005) Modelled Impacts of Scoping Development Scenarios in the Lower Mekong Basin, Mekong River Commission, Cited by: MRC (2009d), Hydrological and Flood Hazards in the Lower Mekong Basin, Mekong River Commission Secretariat, Vientiane, Lao PDR, 1-324. 

Boucharel, J., Dewitte, D., du Penhoat P., Garel, B., Yeh, S.-W., Kug, J.-S. (2011) ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate, Climate Dynamics 37: 2045–2065, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1119-9.

De Bruijn, K. M. (2005) Resilience and Flood Risk Management, A Systems Approach Applied to Lowland Rivers, Delft University Press, Delft, Netherlands.

Delgado, J. M., Merz, B., Apel, H. (2010) Flood trends and variability in the Mekong River, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 407-418.

Doyle, T., Day, R., Michot, T. (2010) Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessment of the Mekong Delta Vietnam, U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2010-1165, 110 p.

FIVAS (2007) Ruined Rivers, Damaged Lives, The Impact of the Theun-Hinboun Hydropower Project on Downstreams Communities in Lao PDR, FIVAS, Oslo, Norway, pp 66.

Flato, G. M., Boer, G. J., Lee, W. G., Mac Farlane, N. A., Ramsden, D., Reader, M. C., Weaver, A. J. (2000) The Canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis global coupled model and its climate, Clim Dyn 16: 451–467.

Fox, J., Vogler, J. B., Sen, O. L., Ziegler, A. L., Giambelluca, T. W. (2009)  Land cover and land use change Southeast Asia.

Fu, K. D., He, D. M., Lu, X.X. (2008)  Sedimentation in the Manwan reservoir in the Upper Mekong and its downstream impacts, Quaternary International, 186, 91-99.

Gao, G. Y., Fu, B. J., Lü, Y. H., Liu, Y., Wang, S., Zhou, J. (2012) Coupling the modified SCS-CN and RUSLE models to simulate hydrological effects of restoring vegetation in the Loess Plateau of China, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2347-2364.

GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) (2011) Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation to Climate Change - Cambodia, World Bank, Washington, D.C.

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Government of Lao PDR (2009) National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change, Lao People’s Democratic Republic Peace Independence Democracy Unity Prosperity.

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Halls, A. S., Burnhill, T. J., Kshatriya, M. (2009) Modelling the Cumulative Barrier and Passage Effects of Mainstream Hydropower Dams on Migratory Fish Populations in the Lower Mekong Basin, MRC Technical Paper No 25, Vientiane, p. 103.

Hannaford, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Keef, S., Parryand, C., Prudhomme (2011) Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit, Journal for Hydrological Processes 25, 1146–1162, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7725.

Hoanh, C. T., Guttman, H., Droogers, P., Aerts, J. (2003) ADAPT: Water, climate, food and environment under climate change, The Mekong basin in Southeast Asia, International Water Management Institute, Mekong River  Commission, Future Water, Institute of Environmental Studies. Colombo, Phnom-Penh, Wageningen.

Hoanh, C. T. et al. (2012) Modelling to support land and water management: experiences from the Mekong River  Delta, Vietnam, Water International, 37:4, 408-426.

IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.

Ishidaira, H., Ishikawa Y., Funada S., Takeuchi K. (2008) Estimating the evolution of vegetation cover and its hydrological impact in the Mekong River Basin in the 21st Century, Hydrol. Process, 22, 1395–1405.

Jiang, Y., Liu, J., Cui, Q., An, X., Wu, C. (2011) Land use/land cover change and driving force analysis in Xishuangbanna Region in 1986–2008, Frontiers of Earth Science.

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Johnston, R., Lacombe, G., Hoanh, C. T., Noble, A., Pavelic, P., Smakhtin, V., Suhardiman, D., Pheng, K. S., Sze, C. P. (2010) Climate change, water and agriculture in the Greater Mekong Subregion, Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 60 p. (IWMI Research Report 136), doi:10.5337/2010.212.

Keskinen, M., Kummu, M. (2011) Impact Assessment in the Mekong–Review of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) & Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA), Espoo: Aalto University.

Keyantash, J. A., Dracup J. A. (2004) An aggregate drought index: Assessing drought severity based on fluctuations in the hydrologic cycle and surface water storage, Water Resources Research, 40(9).

Kite, G. (2001) Modeling the Mekong: hydrological simulation for environmental impact Studies, Journal of Hydrology 253, 1-3.

Mainuddin, M., Kirby, M., Hoanh, C.T. (2011) Adaptation to Climate Change for Food Security in the lower Mekong Basin, CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Canberra.

Mc Avaney, B. J. et al. (2001) Model Evaluation, J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J.v.d. Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson (Editors), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 471–524.

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MMRC (2012) Working Paper 2011-2015, The Impact and Management of Flood and Droughts in the Lower Mekong Basin & the Implication of possible Climate Change, Flood Management and Mitigation Programme, p. 130.

Müller, D. (2004) From agricultural expansion to intensification: Rural development and determinants of land-use change in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, Tropical Ecology Support Programme (TOEB), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), F-VI/6e.

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Räsänen, T. A., Kummu, M. (2012) Spatiotemporal influences of ENSO on precipitation and flood pulse in the Mekong River Basin, Journal of Hydrology, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.028.

Rerkasem, B. (2011) Climate Change and GMS Agriculture, in: Rayanakorn K (Eds.), Climate Change Challenges in the Mekong Region, Chiang Mai University Press, Chiang Mai.

Senevirathene, N., Mony, K., Samarakoon, L., Hazarika, M. K. (2011) Land use/land cover change detection of tonle sap watershed, Cambodia, AIT, Pathumathani, Thailand, 1-6.

Singh, A. S. (2007) Agriculture and Rural Development in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region, The Important Nexus, CUTS Hanoi Resource Centre, Hanoi.

Trisurat, Y., Alkemade, R., Verburg, P. H. (2010) Projecting Land-Use Change and Its Consequences for Biodiversity in Northern Thailand, Environmental Management 45(3), 626–639.

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Vastila, K., Kummu, M., Sangmanee, C., Chinvanno, S. (2010) Modelling climate change impacts on the flood pulse in the Lower Mekong floodplains, Journal of Water and Climate Change 1(1): 67-86.

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Zhao, Q., Liu, S., Deng, L., Dong, S., Yang, Z., Liu, Q. (2012) Determining the influencing distance of dam construction and reservoir impoundment on land use: A case study of Manwan Dam, Lancang River. Ecological Engineering, Elsevier B.V., 1-8.